Example Scenario

This scenario describes a hypothetical intelligence problem in the area of technology assessment. Is the nation of B, well known in the miniature camera industry, planning to move from optical to digital technology?

B scientists have long been active in professional societies related to optics and photochemistry, and scientists from other countries are often seen at B universities for extended periods, working on joint paper and patents. Using our visualization technology, an analyst can visualize the miniature camera industry in B, zooming in as needed to see linkages between, for example, the major manufacturers, and contacts between B and foreign scientists. Of particular interest is Professor X, an expert in photosensitive chemicals. X's work was supported for many years by the B Science Foundation (BSF); that funding supported his collaboration with Professor Y, and expert in optics. As the analyst reviews the changing linkages between X and Y over the past several months, the analyst notes the decreasing frequency of X and Y being present at the same scientific meetings. The analyst also notices new BSF support for Doctor Z, an expert in flash memory devices. Professor Y continues to enjoy BSF support, with Z as a new collaborator, while Professor X's funding has been declining. The analyst runs the visualization into the future, and estimates the probability of continued collaboration between Y and Z as better than 70%, while future work between X and Y grows less and less likely, approaching zero within four years. Zooming back out, the analyst sees that this pattern of less collaboration between optics and chemistry but more collaboration between optics and electronics occurs again and again. The analyst then has the evidence needed to conclude that B is indeed moving to digital camera technology, and that the shift is likely to take place within four years.